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Calls › AVAX
AVAX

1 research call since Oct 10. Latest view: Lean bearish

Last close
$9.00 2026-10-29
1 week
-6.8%
1 month
-15.2%
3 months
+40.1%
1 year
-53.9%
Latest call vs BTC
-11.1% since 2026-10-10
Technical scan
Hold rank 10 of 20

Price, last 12 months daily close · markers are published calls

5.0010.0015.0020.002025-10-292026-04-302026-10-29Lean bearish · Oct 10, 20262025-10-29: 19.492025-10-30: 19.662025-10-31: 18.122025-11-01: 18.192025-11-02: 18.712025-11-03: 18.842025-11-04: 16.642025-11-05: 16.012025-11-06: 16.632025-11-07: 16.102025-11-08: 17.792025-11-09: 17.482025-11-10: 17.772025-11-11: 18.172025-11-12: 17.012025-11-13: 16.812025-11-14: 16.082025-11-15: 15.142025-11-16: 15.522025-11-17: 15.152025-11-18: 14.502025-11-19: 14.562025-11-20: 14.262025-11-21: 13.812025-11-22: 13.302025-11-23: 13.232025-11-24: 13.272025-11-25: 13.892025-11-26: 14.182025-11-27: 14.942025-11-28: 15.022025-11-29: 14.852025-11-30: 14.252025-12-01: 13.762025-12-02: 12.752025-12-03: 13.642025-12-04: 14.812025-12-05: 14.402025-12-06: 13.222025-12-07: 13.412025-12-08: 13.462025-12-09: 13.642025-12-10: 14.622025-12-11: 14.132025-12-12: 13.432025-12-13: 13.112025-12-14: 13.382025-12-15: 12.892025-12-16: 12.342025-12-17: 12.342025-12-18: 11.842025-12-19: 11.442025-12-20: 12.252025-12-21: 12.212025-12-22: 12.142025-12-23: 12.402025-12-24: 12.182025-12-25: 12.112025-12-26: 12.082025-12-27: 12.342025-12-28: 12.692025-12-29: 12.642025-12-30: 12.362025-12-31: 12.562026-01-01: 12.312026-01-02: 13.652026-01-03: 13.822026-01-04: 13.962026-01-05: 14.292026-01-06: 14.462026-01-07: 14.582026-01-08: 14.112026-01-09: 13.882026-01-10: 13.812026-01-11: 13.802026-01-12: 13.732026-01-13: 13.512026-01-14: 14.792026-01-15: 14.632026-01-16: 13.832026-01-17: 13.612026-01-18: 13.752026-01-19: 12.752026-01-20: 12.742026-01-21: 12.132026-01-22: 12.472026-01-23: 12.252026-01-24: 12.182026-01-25: 12.162026-01-26: 11.532026-01-27: 11.762026-01-28: 12.192026-01-29: 12.132026-01-30: 11.082026-01-31: 10.902026-02-01: 10.162026-02-02: 9.972026-02-03: 10.182026-02-04: 9.942026-02-05: 9.752026-02-06: 8.332026-02-07: 9.272026-02-08: 9.262026-02-09: 9.172026-02-10: 9.062026-02-11: 8.752026-02-12: 8.702026-02-13: 8.972026-02-14: 9.222026-02-15: 9.672026-02-16: 9.352026-02-17: 9.342026-02-18: 9.242026-02-19: 8.942026-02-20: 8.972026-02-21: 9.222026-02-22: 9.212026-02-23: 8.542026-02-24: 8.452026-02-25: 8.372026-02-26: 9.542026-02-27: 9.352026-02-28: 9.012026-03-01: 9.232026-03-02: 9.082026-03-03: 9.212026-03-04: 9.242026-03-05: 9.532026-03-06: 9.452026-03-07: 9.082026-03-08: 9.022026-03-09: 8.922026-03-10: 9.312026-03-11: 9.582026-03-12: 9.552026-03-13: 9.732026-03-14: 9.742026-03-15: 9.812026-03-16: 10.052026-03-17: 10.502026-03-18: 10.262026-03-19: 9.722026-03-20: 9.542026-03-21: 9.582026-03-22: 9.202026-03-23: 9.122026-03-24: 9.622026-03-25: 9.702026-03-26: 9.752026-03-27: 9.152026-03-28: 8.782026-03-29: 8.762026-03-30: 8.602026-03-31: 8.802026-04-01: 8.902026-04-02: 9.132026-04-03: 8.752026-04-04: 8.912026-04-05: 8.992026-04-06: 9.152026-04-07: 8.892026-04-08: 9.462026-04-09: 9.052026-04-10: 9.382026-04-11: 9.402026-04-12: 9.382026-04-13: 9.032026-04-14: 9.692026-04-15: 9.322026-04-16: 9.442026-04-17: 9.732026-04-18: 9.742026-04-19: 9.342026-04-20: 9.012026-04-21: 9.282026-04-22: 9.392026-04-23: 9.342026-04-24: 9.382026-04-25: 9.402026-04-26: 9.362026-04-27: 9.462026-04-28: 9.272026-04-29: 9.172026-04-30: 9.122026-05-01: 9.092026-05-02: 9.092026-05-03: 9.182026-05-04: 9.082026-05-05: 9.172026-05-06: 9.402026-05-07: 9.612026-05-08: 9.502026-05-09: 9.912026-05-10: 9.962026-05-11: 10.232026-05-12: 10.122026-05-13: 9.832026-05-14: 9.752026-05-15: 9.902026-05-16: 9.542026-05-17: 9.292026-05-18: 9.192026-05-19: 9.242026-05-20: 9.102026-05-21: 9.292026-05-22: 9.442026-05-23: 9.152026-05-24: 9.392026-05-25: 9.202026-05-26: 9.302026-05-27: 9.132026-05-28: 9.032026-05-29: 8.922026-05-30: 8.822026-05-31: 8.952026-06-01: 8.972026-06-02: 8.922026-06-03: 8.172026-06-04: 8.052026-06-05: 7.702026-06-06: 6.722026-06-07: 6.662026-06-08: 6.812026-06-09: 6.762026-06-10: 6.642026-06-11: 6.382026-06-12: 6.642026-06-13: 6.572026-06-14: 6.722026-06-15: 6.782026-06-16: 6.842026-06-17: 6.872026-06-18: 6.762026-06-19: 6.312026-06-20: 5.892026-06-21: 6.242026-06-22: 6.112026-06-23: 6.232026-06-24: 6.482026-06-25: 6.452026-06-26: 6.232026-06-27: 6.622026-06-28: 6.422026-06-29: 6.442026-06-30: 6.662026-07-01: 6.532026-07-02: 6.662026-07-03: 6.792026-07-04: 6.942026-07-05: 6.962026-07-06: 6.922026-07-07: 6.922026-07-08: 6.692026-07-09: 6.472026-07-10: 6.682026-07-11: 6.742026-07-12: 6.552026-07-13: 6.402026-07-14: 6.452026-07-15: 6.702026-07-16: 6.702026-07-17: 6.512026-07-18: 6.582026-07-19: 6.572026-07-20: 6.462026-07-21: 6.572026-07-22: 6.562026-07-23: 6.622026-07-24: 6.262026-07-25: 6.302026-07-26: 6.772026-07-27: 6.742026-07-28: 6.402026-07-29: 6.572026-07-30: 6.422026-07-31: 6.432026-08-01: 6.382026-08-02: 6.192026-08-03: 6.542026-08-04: 6.572026-08-05: 6.682026-08-06: 6.662026-08-07: 6.432026-08-08: 6.432026-08-09: 6.482026-08-10: 6.422026-08-11: 6.432026-08-12: 6.322026-08-13: 6.312026-08-14: 6.452026-08-15: 6.472026-08-16: 6.322026-08-17: 6.322026-08-18: 6.342026-08-19: 6.332026-08-20: 6.772026-08-21: 7.292026-08-22: 7.842026-08-23: 7.492026-08-24: 7.612026-08-25: 7.542026-08-26: 7.332026-08-27: 7.442026-08-28: 7.532026-08-29: 7.312026-08-30: 7.332026-08-31: 7.112026-09-01: 7.232026-09-02: 7.222026-09-03: 7.192026-09-04: 7.522026-09-05: 7.392026-09-06: 7.592026-09-07: 7.902026-09-08: 8.072026-09-09: 8.012026-09-10: 7.802026-09-11: 7.422026-09-12: 7.462026-09-13: 7.402026-09-14: 7.302026-09-15: 7.562026-09-16: 7.272026-09-17: 7.472026-09-18: 7.612026-09-19: 8.202026-09-20: 10.092026-09-21: 11.322026-09-22: 11.232026-09-23: 11.302026-09-24: 10.262026-09-25: 10.202026-09-26: 10.652026-09-27: 10.842026-09-28: 10.902026-09-29: 10.612026-09-30: 11.432026-10-01: 10.942026-10-02: 10.992026-10-03: 10.802026-10-04: 11.122026-10-05: 11.102026-10-06: 11.132026-10-07: 11.602026-10-08: 11.122026-10-09: 10.072026-10-10: 10.332026-10-11: 10.352026-10-12: 10.962026-10-13: 10.142026-10-14: 10.232026-10-15: 10.012026-10-16: 10.032026-10-17: 9.942026-10-18: 9.762026-10-19: 9.762026-10-20: 9.602026-10-21: 9.742026-10-22: 9.652026-10-23: 9.122026-10-24: 9.052026-10-25: 8.992026-10-26: 8.912026-10-27: 8.962026-10-28: 8.952026-10-29: 9.00

Current technical signals nightly scan, 2026-10-27

Crypto RSI: Deeply OversoldSupport/Resistance: Near Support Crypto EMA: Bearish EMALong-Term Trend: DowntrendCrypto MACD: Bearish Weakening

Notable moves days AVAX was among the market's biggest movers

  • 2026-07-24  +8.1% Top gainer of the day · $6.76

What would change the latest view

  • Post-Helicon daily transactions and active addresses (excluding identified bot clusters) recover to or above pre-upgrade levels within 60 days while fees hold the new floor — that would show real demand at higher prices and invalidate the 'administered revenue' thesis
  • Combined spot ETF AUM scales to >$250M with sustained weekly net inflows, making the institutional bid mechanically relevant versus daily volume
  • Token-denominated TVL (not USD) rises for two consecutive months, proving capital inflow independent of price
  • A confirmed, dated institutional deployment (tokenized-stock trading, government tokenization) goes into production on Avalanche
  • Price breaks below the 50d SMA (~$8.9) on rising volume with ETF outflows — that would confirm the bear case faster than fundamentals and argue against averaging down

All calls on AVAX

AVAX Lean bearish
Oct 10, 2026 · edge 4/10· evidence 6/10

Liquid, yes — but not activity-backed.

AVAX's scan-topping rally is a genuine, liquid, asset-specific repricing — but it is priced on narrative (spot ETF launches, the Sep 22 Helicon upgrade, an institutional RWA story) while measured on-chain activity contracts sharply and protocol revenue remains economically trivial. The rally's 'fundamental confirmation' is largely an artifact: TVL rose in USD terms with the…

Entry $10.36 (2026-10-10) 1m vs BTC: -11.1% so far

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