TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited · Technology
1 research call since Oct 11. Latest view: Lean bullish
Last close
$436.87 2026-10-27
1 week
+2.8%
1 month
-3.0%
3 months
+11.4%
1 year
+46.5%
Latest call vs SPY
-2.5% since 2026-10-09
Technical scan
Strong Sell rank 104 of 127
Price, last 12 months daily close · markers are published calls
Current technical signals nightly scan, 2026-10-27
MACD: Bearish WeakeningOBV: Confirmed Downtrend
What would change the latest view
Oct 15 Q4 guidance implies sequential decline or management declines to endorse anything close to FY27 consensus growth — thesis shifts from 'fairly priced growth' to 'full multiple on peak estimates'
Any confirmed hyperscaler 2026/2027 capex cut or TSMC order deferral (vs the current zero-cut, upward-revision evidence)
FY27 EPS consensus cuts begin (the 9-up/0-down streak reversing) — the below-average-multiple argument depends on $22 FY27 EPS being real
Q3 gross margin lands below 65% (bottom of guide), signaling overseas/2nm dilution is worse than quantified
Section 232 phase 2 removes the data-center exemption AND extends to servers — converts a scenario risk into a direct demand tax
Evidence emerges of actual OpenAI-linked order cancellations or vendor-financing withdrawal (not just revenue-miss headlines)
TSMC's fundamentals are still accelerating (Q3 revenue +50% YoY, above the top end of guidance; FY26 growth guided >40% USD; capex raised to $60-64B plus a $100B Arizona commitment), while the stock trades at ~26.7x FY26 and ~20.6x FY27 consensus EPS — the FY27 multiple sitting below its own ~29.3x three-year trailing average despite consensus expecting ~35% revenue growth.…
Entry $453.31 (2026-10-09)1m vs SPY: -2.5%so far
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