FIG
Lean bullish
Sep 25, 2026
· Figma, Inc.
· edge 6/10· evidence 7/10
Business strong; stock a speculative buy.
The market is pricing Figma as a casualty of AI-driven seat compression, but every reported metric contradicts that narrative: NDR rose from 129% to 136%, AI credit monetization is additive to revenue per customer, and FY26 guidance was raised. The selloff is multiple compression on a sector thesis (Adobe -34% 1yr, FIG correlation to ADBE 0.64) plus guided deceleration, not…
Entry $21.34 (2026-09-24)
Outcome pending
FIG
Lean bullish
Sep 15, 2026
· Figma, Inc.
· edge 5/10· evidence 6/10
Yes — but only in small size.
Figma's fundamentals (Q2 2026 revenue +48% y/y to $370M, 85% gross margin, 136% NDR, FY26 revenue guide raised ~$40M to ~$1.47B) are decoupled from its price action: the stock fell 66% from post-IPO highs while consensus estimates rose. The de-rating now arguably overshoots — at ~$12B market cap and roughly $10.8B EV (net of IPO cash), the stock trades at ~6-7x NTM sales…
Entry $23.88 (2026-09-15)
1m vs SPY: -11.9% so far
FIG
No clear edge
Sep 8, 2026
· Figma, Inc.
· evidence 7/10
Yes — massively, but not cheaply.
FIG's collapse from ~$142 to $24 is one of the most severe post-IPO resets of its cohort, caused by (1) valuation normalization from a ~$68B peak market cap, (2) lockup-driven insider supply, and (3) AI investment costs compressing margins plus guidance implying growth deceleration (Q3 guide ~36% vs Q2's 48%). The underlying business remains genuinely strong — 48% revenue…
Entry $22.75 (2026-09-08)
1m vs SPY: -6.4% so far
FIG
No clear edge
Aug 23, 2026
· Figma, Inc.
· evidence 7/10
No clear edge at $27.
Figma is executing well against the AI-threat narrative — accelerating revenue growth (third straight quarter of acceleration per transcript coverage), raised FY26 guidance to $1.463-1.467B, NDR in the mid-130s, and explicit AI credit monetization. However, the market is now pricing a different question: whether AI and marketing investment structurally dilutes margins. Q2's…
Entry $27.10 (2026-08-21)
1m vs SPY: -15.8%
FIG
Lean bullish
Aug 14, 2026
· Figma, Inc.
· edge 5.5/10· evidence 7/10
Multiple compression, not deterioration.
The market is pricing a growth deceleration (FY27E +24%) that has not yet appeared in any reported metric (Q2 +48%, NDR 136%, raised FY26 guide). The 2025-26 drawdown was driven by IPO-pop normalization, lockup expiry (Jan 27, 2026), and peak AI-disruption fear — all of which have either lapsed or been partially refuted by AI-credit monetization data. If Figma tracks its…
Entry $25.42 (2026-08-14)
1m vs SPY: -7.2%